In a disturbing trend, missile attacks have emerged as the leading cause of death among airline passengers over the past decade, with over 500 fatalities recorded. The most recent incident occurred on Christmas Day 2023 when an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people.
According to the Flight Safety Foundation's Aviation Safety Network, this marks the third major missile strike on a commercial airliner since 2014. The death toll from these attacks far surpasses any other cause of airline fatalities during this period, including the two Boeing 737 MAX crashes in 2019 that claimed 346 lives.
The Christmas Day crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight JS-8243 is currently under investigation. While Russian authorities initially suggested a bird strike, aviation experts examining wreckage photos noted evidence of shrapnel damage consistent with an anti-aircraft missile strike. A flight attendant reported hearing three loud impacts before the crash, and passengers sustained injuries from objects that penetrated the fuselage.
If confirmed as a Russian attack, this would be Moscow's second involvement in downing a civilian aircraft in recent years. In 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down by Russian-backed forces over Ukraine, killing all 298 people aboard. In 2020, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps mistakenly shot down a Ukraine International Airlines jet, resulting in 176 deaths.
The rise in missile-related airline fatalities represents a stark shift from previous decades. Between the 1988 downing of an Iran Air flight by a US Navy ship and the 2014 MH17 incident, nearly three decades passed without such attacks.
Aviation risk specialist Andy Blackwell notes this emerging threat adds a new layer of concern beyond traditional risks like terrorism. "You've got the conventional threats from terrorist groups, but now you've got this accidental risk as well," he stated.
The US government has indicated early evidence suggests Russian air defense systems may be responsible for the Azerbaijan Airlines crash. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned against premature conclusions, stating that a thorough investigation must be completed first.