A dramatic shift is emerging in how U.S. officials view the mysterious ailment known as "Havana syndrome," challenging previous conclusions that dismissed foreign involvement.
In 2023, U.S. intelligence agencies, led by the CIA, strongly rejected the idea that a foreign adversary using an energy weapon caused the debilitating symptoms reported by American diplomats and intelligence officers. However, new developments are forcing a reassessment of this position.
Recent intelligence has prompted two agencies to revise their stance, now seeing an increased likelihood that some cases may indeed involve foreign actors. One agency estimates "roughly even" odds that a novel weapon or prototype has been used against U.S. personnel, while another sees similar chances that such a weapon exists but hasn't been deployed.
The White House appears more convinced than intelligence agencies about potential foreign involvement. In November, senior National Security Council officials held a notable meeting with Havana syndrome victims in the White House Situation Room, where they shared that new information undermined the 2023 assessment.
The condition first emerged about a decade ago when American federal employees in Havana reported sudden onset of symptoms including painful ear ringing, head pressure, vertigo, and nausea. Some developed chronic fatigue and mobility issues. Similar cases were later reported in Russia and other countries.
A key point of contention has been the technical feasibility of an energy weapon capable of causing such symptoms. While the 2023 assessment deemed this implausible, an independent expert panel had previously suggested that "pulsed electromagnetic energy" could potentially cause these effects.
The House Intelligence Committee has also questioned the earlier dismissal of foreign involvement. A recent report from Representative Rick Crawford labeled the conclusion that foreign adversaries weren't responsible as "dubious at best and misleading at worst."
This evolving situation presents a challenge for the incoming Trump administration. If evidence eventually points to deliberate attacks by a foreign power, particularly Russia, it would demand a strong diplomatic response. Meanwhile, the immediate focus remains on supporting affected personnel, who continue to struggle with medical issues and career disruptions.
While five intelligence agencies maintain their original position, this crack in the consensus represents a notable shift in understanding one of the most puzzling medical mysteries affecting U.S. government personnel abroad.